Nevada polls 2016

Hillary Clinton just lost New Hampshire. Don’t assume she’ll win the next state, either.
By Aaron Blake February 9 at 8:13 PM Follow @aaronblake

SOURCE: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/09/things-could-get-worse-before-they-get-better-for-clinton-post-new-hampshire/


Update: The Clinton campaign conceded at 8 p.m. Eastern time, as the last polls in New Hampshire were closing. The below post had been updated.There is a quirk in the Democratic presidential nominating calendar.

 

Nevada, which is generally thought to be the fourth of the four early states, will actually be the third to vote. Its caucuses are next on the nominating calendar and will take place Feb. 20 — the same day Republicans hold a primary in South Carolina. South Carolina Democrats go to the polls a week later, on Feb. 27.

And if you’re Hillary Clinton, that’s not ideal.

 

There is this perception that New Hampshire, which Bernie Sanders won Tuesday, is too white and too close to Sanders’s home state of Vermont for Clinton to win. After New Hampshire, though, the states get significantly more diverse; basically every one of the next couple dozen states to vote is less white than Iowa and New Hampshire.

We’ve called this Clinton’s “nonwhite firewall.” Basically: More-diverse electorates start voting, and Clinton has a better chance of putting together a series of wins and ending Bernie Sanders once and for all.

But while Clinton might indeed be a shoo-in in South Carolina, that isn’t so clearly the case in Nevada. Witness this tweet Monday from chief Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston:

Hillary has an advantage. But it will be closer than people think, and she’s not a lock. #wematter https://t.co/yvE5yG0fcG

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 8, 2016

Technically, Nevada is actually the more-diverse state of the two. Non-Hispanic whites comprise just 51.5 percent of the population in Nevada, compared to 64 percent in South Carolina. Nevada has many Hispanics, while South Carolina has a large black population.

But to assume that both play to Clinton’s strengths in similar ways is to miss the point. For a few reasons:

1. While Nevada is even more diverse than South Carolina, its caucuses have been much whiter.

According to 2008 entrance polls, just 15 percent of Democratic caucus-goers were Latinos, even as they were 24 percent of the population of the state.

This has plenty to do with the fact that, while about a quarter of the state was Hispanic, just 12 percent of eligible voters in Nevada were Hispanic, thanks to huge populations of young and undocumented Latinos. In fact, in 2008, black voters actually comprised the same portion of the caucus electorate as Hispanics — 15 percent — despite being less than 10 percent of the state’s population.

That black turnout likely had at least something to do with the potential first black president being on the ballot — something that will not be true in this year’s caucuses. Thus, even as the state’s Hispanic population has climbed from 24 percent to 28 percent over the last eight years, we could very well see an electorate that is no more diverse than it was in 2008.

And it wasn’t a very diverse electorate. In fact, it was nearly two-thirds white — compared to 43 percent in South Carolina that year.

2. Latinos are less overwhelmingly for Clinton

An automated Public Policy Polling national survey last week showed Clinton leading Sanders by 74 points among black voters, but by just 12 points among Hispanics.

That’s one survey, but it’s clear that Sanders’s problem is much more acute among black voters, who are a much bigger presence in South Carolina than in Nevada.

3. Nevada is a caucus state

This is a format that requires a time investment and rewards impassioned supporters, who are more numerous on the Sanders side of the 2016 primary, all signs indicate. Clinton will certainly have a formidable operation on the ground in Nevada, but as we saw in Iowa, intensity can make up for a lot.

So could Sanders actually win Nevada? It’s very difficult to say with any certainty, given the dearth of quality public polling. The last high-quality survey from CNN-ORC in October showed Clinton leading Sanders by 22 points (58-36) in a race without Joe Biden and with Martin O’Malley. Of course, back then, CNN’s polling showed Clinton ahead in Iowa by 18 points. A lot could have changed in Nevada, too.

But the atmospherics are there for a competitive state — one that could extend Clinton’s misery for just a little while longer or at least be a headache, before her campaign can fall back on the much more solid portions of her firewall.

Nevada Democratic Caucus Polls 2016: Hillary Ahead, but That Could Change

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LEW ROCKWELL: THE TRUTH ABOUT TRUMP Top libertarian talks about Trump and the rise of populism, the cashless society and martial law

World-renowned libertarian Lew Rockwell, the co-founder of the Mises Institute and Ron Paul’s former congressional chief of staff, speaks about Donald Trump and the rise of populism, the economic collapse, the cashless society, martial law and his late friend Murray Rothbard, the founder of anarcho-capitalism.

00:00 – Trump and Murray Rothbard
03:05 – Why authoritarians hate Trump
05:15 – Trump, Bernie Sanders and the populist revolt
07:22 – Obama’s push for martial law
11:55 – Bernie Sanders
13:20 – Global economic collapse
15:09 – The cashless society
18:58 – The Mises Institute

Trump Says Our News is Fake in Best Speech Ever!

Trump Says Our News is Fake in Best Speech Ever!

Glenn Canady (Friend me!) LIKE my other FacebookTruth Warriors Page , Twitter , Tsu , Pinterest and LinkedIn!

Watch the first video on www.project.nsearch.com to open a Doorway to God!  Those who join Project Nsearch will learn how I went from Zero to over $8,000 a month, get free ebooks on natural curesfree energy and spreading more truth!    I teach others how to make real extra income on my Newsletter.  Join my site and email me at glenn@crankmoney.com or call me at (352) 478-8059 so I can reach you!  Thank you for sharing all my articles on social networks!  

This is one of the best Trump’s speeches I’ve seen from Anderson South Carolina!  It’s a must watch!    We’ve got to get this man elected!  In this speech Trump talks about Obama trying to take our guns by executive order about 1 minute in but my favorite part comes as he talks about the Fake News at the 6:00 mark!  He basically says our News is Fake!

“Media is so Dishonest”

“They Don’t Report the Facts!”

“They report the opposite!”

Trump Calls Out Fake News at 6:00 Mark!   

We must get everybody to vote for Trump regardless of their party!  Let’s unite America and vote against ALL the lying politicians who sold us out!  Get rid of all of them!   I love what he says about the Zionist scumbag Lyndsey Graham in this speech!

We’ve got to close our borders and destroy all these fake Illuminati scumbags running for President!   We have a real chance to do something special here as a nation!   Trump can make us great again!  They system can’t control Trump.  He’s a loose cannon and I love that about him!   I’m asking everybody on BIN to help him!   The Fake News hates Trump!  The Illuminati scum politicians like Bush and Clinton hate Trump!   Strike up conversations with people and tell them Trump is our ONLY hope!   The only one telling the truth!  Trump is our only hope to keep our guns!   Tell everybody our news is FAKE and and our government are a bunch of LIARS!   Trump is the only one calling them out!

 And if you want to REALLY destroy the fake news start exposing these videos proving the reporter shooting in Virginia was 100% FAKE!   This is the information the controlled opposition in alternative media such as Alex Jones are hiding from everybody!   This has the ability to totally destroy the fake news but Alex Jones is telling his fans the Virginia reporter shooting is REAL!   It’s unbelievable!  These two videos PROVES the shooting was fake! Who is paying Alex to hide this smoking gun evidence that could bring down the system?

Luckily Alex Jones was exposed as being a Zionist shill by David Duke and his fans are now waking up!  We can never win until all controlled opposition shielding the crimes of the Zionists or ANY other group are destroyed!  If you support controlled opposition without calling them out then you’re part of the problem and why we are losing!  I challenge all Alex Jones fans to TRY to reach Alex about this video and watch how he runs from you!   Don’t support anybody you can’t reach.  If they hide from real questions, they are serving evil.

The Two Videos Proving Virginia Reporter Shooting was Fake!  Our News is Fake and this can bring them down forever but all controlled opposition in Alternative Media are hiding it!  

Gun used in Virginia Reporter Shooting proven fake!

DONALD TRUMP DOMINATES DISCUSSION OF DEMOCRATS’ ‘BORING’ DEBATE ON TWITTER, FACEBOOK “Putin is not feeling too nervous or scared.”

Donald Trump Dominates Discussion Of Democrats’ ‘Boring’ Debate On Twitter, Facebook

Image Credits: gageskidmore, Flickr.

by THE WASHINGTON TIMES | STEPHEN DINAN | OCTOBER 14, 2015


Even the massive Republican presidential field isn’t enough to contain Donald Trump, the billionaire businessman who on Tuesday inserted himself into Democrats’ race as well by live-tweeting their first presidential debate.

It’s another indication of just how thoroughly he has come to dominate the battle for the White House and how Republican and Democratic candidates have come to realize that their path to the White House runs through Mr. Trump.

The billionaire is enjoying every minute of it, gloating over his 4.4 million followers on Twitter and millions more on Facebook, whom he regaled with thoughts on what he pronounced — even before it started — a “boring” Democratic debate.

“[Russian President Vladimir] Putin is not feeling too nervous or scared,”Mr. Trump said in a post as the candidates introduced themselves at the top of the CNN broadcast.

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